Net Zero Stocktake 2024

To have a realistic chance of limiting global average temperature increase to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot, the world must reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions in the early 2050s, alongside rapid, deep, and sustained reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions. All emissions should reach net zero approximately two decades later.

Net Zero Stocktake 2024 offers critical insights into the progress of whole-economy net zero target-setting and the overall performance of more than 4,000 entities on key procedural and substantive elements of net zero integrity — essentially, whether mitigation targets and their associated strategies contain the core components necessary to drive deep decarbonisation over the next 30 years. This is our fourth comprehensive annual report of net zero target intent and integrity across all countries, states & regions in the largest 25-emitting countries in the world, all cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants, and the largest 2,000 publicly listed companies in the world.

Key findings this year:

• Net zero target-setting has consolidated across states and regions, cities, and companies, with increases of 28%, 8%, and 23%, respectively, since the Net Zero Stocktake 2023.
• More than 40% of non-state entities still lack emission reduction or net zero equivalent targets.
• Although the number of credible net zero targets is growing, 5% or less of entities across states and regions, cities, and companies meet all our minimum procedural and substantive integrity criteria.
• The 655 Race to Zero members in the Net Zero Tracker database perform significantly better on minimum integrity criteria compared with non-members. But both groups need to improve.
• National-level net zero (or other mitigation) targets serve as a ‘ceiling’ of ambition for subnational governments, but some subnational regions go above and beyond.
• Improving vertical alignment between national and subnational governments is critical, especially in areas such as target-setting, coordination, and policy implementation.

Of the over 4,000 entities we currently track, at least 1,750 now have net zero targets, up from 769 in December 2020.

Over the past 18 months, net zero target-setting has increased among states and regions, cities, and companies, growing by 28%, 8%, and 23%, respectively. However, more than 40% of non-state entities still lack any form of mitigation target, including major companies such as Tesla, Nintendo, and Berkshire Hathaway.

Since our last Stocktake report 18 months ago, we have observed a significant rise in net zero target-setting among companies based in Asia. The number of companies with net zero targets has grown in China from 27 to 48, in India from 20 to 29, in Japan from 118 to 184, and in South Korea from 22 to 41.

The world requires more short- and long-term targets to be set, but it is equally important that existing targets are strengthened. Nearly two years after the UN Secretary General’s Integrity Matters report clarified what ‘good net zero’ looks like, non-state entities have made very limited progress in enhancing the credibility of their targets.

Although the number of credible net zero pledges has grown, only 5% or fewer of non-state entities meet all the basic procedural and substantive integrity criteria we evaluate.

This year, we examine how members of the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions’ Race to Zero campaign compare with non-members on integrity criteria. The Race to Zero consists of 14,000+ members contributing to halving global emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 at the latest.

Overall, we find that the hundreds of Race to Zero members in the Net Zero Tracker database outperform non-members on both procedural and substantive measures, though both groups still have significant room for improvement.

Net zero target setting by subnational governments in 14 major emitting nations

Alongside our usual overview of annual net zero progress, we investigate how state and regional entities in 14 major-emitting countries — Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, the UK, and the US — are progressing on net zero.

Subnational governments in these countries play a critical role in mitigation efforts, though they vary significantly in the powers they possess and the level of climate ambition they set. We find, among other things, that:

• In general, national-level net zero (or other mitigation) targets serve as a ‘ceiling’ of ambition, but some subnational governments go above and beyond. For example, three of Australia’s eight self-governing states, seven of Germany’s 16 states, and 14 of India’s 46 states have set earlier net zero targets than their national governments.
• Many subnational regions align directly with the level of national climate ambition. This is important for both implementation and credibility: multilateral and national ambitions tend to percolate down to lower levels of government, which are closer to the practical implementation of policies.
• There are instances where subnational regions may have influenced national net zero target-setting. For example, in Australia and Japan several subnational governments published net zero targets before their national governments.
• Subnational governments that can have some degree of autonomy in climate policy have demonstrated encouraging progress, especially in sectors like transport and buildings.

National governments could unlock more subnational progress by, for example, supporting regions through policy guidance on implementation and enhanced coordination. Further support would not only help achieve current targets but also foster the conditions and consensus needed for goals and policies that align with national objectives.

Overall, this report presents a world on the path to net zero but in dire need of swift, sustained action to turn targets into concrete, credible implementation plans. The third ratchet of the Paris Agreement — the submission of new emissions-cutting NDCs — culminating at COP30 in Brazil in 2025, offers a crucial opportunity to achieve this necessary shift.

With the wave of 2024 elections passing into the rear-view mirror, it is time for governments and companies to deliver. Those that have targets must bring them up to the minimum standard of credibility; those without targets risk being left behind in a transition that is speeding up. As breakthrough trends in clean energy and transportation reach scale, and as net zero regulations and litigation increasingly bite, hedging becomes a less attractive strategy.

Companies and governments that ratchet up their credibility will reap the financial, reputational and political benefits of ‘walking the talk’, while those that remain on the fence will look increasingly out of step. The time to ratchet credibility is now.